Taiwan’s final election polls put the ruling party on track to win a record third straight term in power, a setback to President Xi Jinping’s efforts to bring the island closer to Beijing.
The Democratic Progressive Party’s Vice President Lai Ching-te was the frontrunner in three surveys in recent days, with his lead over main opposition rival, Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang, ranging from 3 to 11 percentage points.The Taiwan People’s Party’s Ko Wen-je trails in third place, according to the publicly released polls.
Tuesday is the last day surveys are allowed to be published before a 10-day blackout period ahead of the January 13 election, which has been the island’s most hotly contested in decades. In the TVBS and Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation polls, Lai’s lead was slightly larger than the margins of error.
“If the DPP is able to sustain its lead right now and gets re-elected, we should expect closer watch from both Beijing and Washington on Lai,” said Huang Kwei-bo, a professor of diplomacy at the National Chengchi University. “There’s a possibility for cross strait tensions to deteriorate further.’
Lai has previously described himself as a “political worker for Taiwanese independence,” in comments that angered Beijing. He has since stated Taiwan is already a de facto sovereign nation and therefore does not need to declare independence.
Taiwan Heads into Tight Election | DPP’s Lai has consistent but narrow lead across major opinion polls
China, and the threat it poses to Taiwan’s democracy, has emerged as the dominant theme of the campaign, with candidates sparring over their stance toward Beijing during a televised debate on Saturday. Xi issued a stark reminder of the Communist Party’s territorial claims over the self-ruled democracy on Sunday, reiterating Taiwan would “surely be reunified” with China some day.
A win for Lai would represent a rejection of more engagement with Beijing, a process many of his supporters fear would lead the island toward eventually becoming part of the People’s Republic of China. No party has won a third consecutive presidential vote since Taiwan’s democratic elections began in 1996.
“The presidential election will be hard to call,” with three candidates and a first-past-the-post system, wrote Morgan Stanley strategists led by Daniel Blake in a note dated Dec. 21. Lai’s lead remains narrow and has been bolstered by division and squabbling among the opposition.
Governments and investors around the world are closely watching Taiwan’s election results for signs that might trigger instability in the Taiwan Strait. The island produces around 90% of the world’s most-advanced semiconductors, raising the stakes for the election.
Beijing has cut contact with Taiwan’s current administration and sought to isolate Taipei diplomatically since President Tsai Ing-wen in 2016 declined to accept the island is part of China. Tsai’s government, in response, has sought to strengthen unofficial ties with the US and other democracies around the world, a path that Lai has vowed to follow.
The KMT’s Hou has vowed to rebuild the cross-strait relationship if elected, by accepting the premise that Taiwan is part of Chinese territory. The TPP’s Ko has also said he will talk to Beijing but remained non-committal over whether he would accept the Communist Party’s preconditions for doing so.
While tensions with China do not undermine Taiwan’s near-term economic or political stability, Beijing could escalate pressure on the island if the DPP retains control, Fitch Ratings said in a note last month.
A win for the opposition by either Hou or Ko could thus reduce cross-strait tensions to some extent in the near term. However, “underlying strains in the relationship would persist,” wrote Thomas Rookmaaker, director of Fitch Hong Kong.
The Democratic Progressive Party’s Vice President Lai Ching-te was the frontrunner in three surveys in recent days, with his lead over main opposition rival, Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang, ranging from 3 to 11 percentage points.The Taiwan People’s Party’s Ko Wen-je trails in third place, according to the publicly released polls.
Tuesday is the last day surveys are allowed to be published before a 10-day blackout period ahead of the January 13 election, which has been the island’s most hotly contested in decades. In the TVBS and Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation polls, Lai’s lead was slightly larger than the margins of error.
“If the DPP is able to sustain its lead right now and gets re-elected, we should expect closer watch from both Beijing and Washington on Lai,” said Huang Kwei-bo, a professor of diplomacy at the National Chengchi University. “There’s a possibility for cross strait tensions to deteriorate further.’
Lai has previously described himself as a “political worker for Taiwanese independence,” in comments that angered Beijing. He has since stated Taiwan is already a de facto sovereign nation and therefore does not need to declare independence.
Taiwan Heads into Tight Election | DPP’s Lai has consistent but narrow lead across major opinion polls
China, and the threat it poses to Taiwan’s democracy, has emerged as the dominant theme of the campaign, with candidates sparring over their stance toward Beijing during a televised debate on Saturday. Xi issued a stark reminder of the Communist Party’s territorial claims over the self-ruled democracy on Sunday, reiterating Taiwan would “surely be reunified” with China some day.
A win for Lai would represent a rejection of more engagement with Beijing, a process many of his supporters fear would lead the island toward eventually becoming part of the People’s Republic of China. No party has won a third consecutive presidential vote since Taiwan’s democratic elections began in 1996.
“The presidential election will be hard to call,” with three candidates and a first-past-the-post system, wrote Morgan Stanley strategists led by Daniel Blake in a note dated Dec. 21. Lai’s lead remains narrow and has been bolstered by division and squabbling among the opposition.
Governments and investors around the world are closely watching Taiwan’s election results for signs that might trigger instability in the Taiwan Strait. The island produces around 90% of the world’s most-advanced semiconductors, raising the stakes for the election.
Beijing has cut contact with Taiwan’s current administration and sought to isolate Taipei diplomatically since President Tsai Ing-wen in 2016 declined to accept the island is part of China. Tsai’s government, in response, has sought to strengthen unofficial ties with the US and other democracies around the world, a path that Lai has vowed to follow.
The KMT’s Hou has vowed to rebuild the cross-strait relationship if elected, by accepting the premise that Taiwan is part of Chinese territory. The TPP’s Ko has also said he will talk to Beijing but remained non-committal over whether he would accept the Communist Party’s preconditions for doing so.
While tensions with China do not undermine Taiwan’s near-term economic or political stability, Beijing could escalate pressure on the island if the DPP retains control, Fitch Ratings said in a note last month.
A win for the opposition by either Hou or Ko could thus reduce cross-strait tensions to some extent in the near term. However, “underlying strains in the relationship would persist,” wrote Thomas Rookmaaker, director of Fitch Hong Kong.
